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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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